Lots of Movement, But Very Little Direction

Here’s What We’re Thinking

June 11, 2015

Almost halfway into 2015, Canadian and U.S. equity markets are up less than 2% apiece. Unfortunately, we’re expecting this lackluster performance to continue in the near‐term and our full‐year price‐only return expectations remain in the mid‐single digit range. With equity market valuations still near the high end of the historical range, we see hurdles in the form of monetary policy uncertainty and related bond market instability, erratic economic progress, and geopolitical anxieties. Among the few measures that have been moving higher is volatility. While global oil prices will remain a wildcard when it comes to S&P/TSX Composite Index performance, we think the 40% recovery in WTI crude oil since the mid‐March low has likely run its course for now and oil should trade in a narrow range over the summer months.

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